December 23, 2003
Bush's poll numbers . . . (part two)
A new Washington Post poll is out and things look even gloomier for the Not So Grand Party than I previously thought. (And yes I do understand we are still dealing with a post-Saddam-capture bump which may or may not dissipate).
Bush's approval rating is at 60 percent versus a disapproval rate of 38 percent (a spread of +22). Approval for his handling of the economy is at 51 (+7); Iraq 60 (+21); terror 70 (+42); and education 47 (+10). His weak spots are the prescription drugs for the elderly, health insurance and Medicare (all of which could hurt him in all important Florida).
I found the biggest difference between this poll and the last one I cited is his reelect numbers against a generic Democrat: Bush 50 - Dem. 41 (+9) (the previous one had him tied). And it gets worse when Dean is named: Bush 55 - Dean 35 (+22).
They also gave respondents a list of issues and asked which would be "the single most important issue in your vote for president next year." 73 percent cited issues in which Bush gets positive ratings.
Support for the invasion of Iraq is at 59 (+20) and 57 percent say they are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supported going to war with Iraq (+22).
A lot can happen in a year and by no means am I getting cocky but I think any objective analysis has to say that for now Dean faces a very steep uphill battle.
I agree. I think any Democratic candidate would have difficulty winning against Bush right now, but the only one I'd like other than Dean is Clark. They both have the sort of aura and personality that helps win elections from what I can tell. However, Bush's numbers have been much higher than this and then fell back down. Since 9/11 there has been a steady erosion of support for him with occasional peaks such as this, so it's quite possible it will happen again. We'll see.