the Greater Nomadic Council

I purposefully refrained from posting about it. Everyone else has already covered it and many have informed things to say about it. But, since you've posted something, I'll say my bit. :) I don't know why you think we might be in trouble because Kerry won. Edwards did almost as well, is from the South, is attractive, is running a campaign with a positive, classy message, and has a good platform. If he can translate this into more funding and continue to increase his momentum, he could win the whole thing.

Of course, Dean still has more money than anyone else and a better organization. He just needs to get back to what got him that in the first place. The last couple of weeks it's seemed like he's just been running a defensive campaign, which obviously didn't work too well. Also, many Iowans seemed to think he was arrogant and that turned them off.

As for Kerry, good for him, but I hope he can't translate his win into a nomination. I don't see how he could win the general election. He's boring, looks funny, and will be easy to label as a waffler.

Of course, we all know that Iowa means next to nothing. Maybe it will cause Lieberman to drop out, though. He can't compete with the top 4 in New Hampshire or anywhere else now.

As for Clark, it looks like his decision to stay out of Iowa may hurt him. Now he has to deal with Kerry and Edwards as well as Dean in New Hampshire. Granted, he's been stumping there for weeks now, so that may be enough, but he's going to have a very hard time winning there. If Kerry wins again, it will cement him as media-anointed frontrunner (again) and Dean will be/is back to being the underdog.

Anyways, there are far too many possible scenarios now to know what will happen. It's going to be an interesting race. Hopefully it will lead to the eventual nominee coming out strong and battle-tested for the general election.

This is, again, just a gut feeling, but I think that your description of Edwards - "is from the South, is attractive, is running a campaign with a positive, classy message, and has a good platform," - encapsulates with slight variation what all of the other leading Democrats have going on. And I don't think a "good" campaign, even with all the right geographical and ideological signifiers, has any prayer of winning. It's time for a hail mary, and I think Dean is it.

I disagree. I understand your pessimism, but even a casual look at the polls throughout Bush's presidency shows the distinct possibility of a Democratic president in 2004. Certainly Bush is the favorite, but that's primarily because he's the incumbent. Furthermore, your point that Dean is a hail mary candidate is rather telling. Do you really think things have changed so dramatically that we should field a candidate out of desperation rather than the kind that traditionally wins? Obviously, all the candidates have weaknesses and strengths, but none of the four major candidates are so weak they would have no chance of beating Bush.

Why do you think no one but Dean has a chance of winning? I'm curious.

Dean scares old people, and old people vote, period.

Prediction: Kerry wins NH. Particularly with his momentum from Iowa, his record as gov in the neighboring state of Mass, and the fact that Dean has (according to morning reports) gone bananas after his third place finish. Dean scares old people and women, yeah, but he's beginning to scare me too.

As for Clark, he's playing for second place.

The comments about Dean seem spot-on from what I've read about him so far. Again, it comes down to his flawed strategy.

Maybe I'm confusing my own personal affection for Dean with my picture of the larger political scheme of things. I think the press are probably doing the same, which may be why his loss seems to come somewhat out of the blue. I guess we'll see in a few weeks.

True. However, you didn't answer my question. :) I'm really interested to know why you think no one else has a chance of beating Bush. I disagree, but I'd like to know what your reasoning is.

I was going to post some of this earlier, but I'm unable to post for the moment--here are my thoughts on the race itself.

It's a 4-way race. I think this coming week will be important and the numbers could swing violently, but the next week (the lead up to Feb. 3) will be desicive. I want to see how all of the candidates handle the tension and pressure--I think whoever proves to be savviest is the one I want to win, barring any dirty tricks or mass deception.

Dean--is by no means out of it, but he is seriously wounded. He's got to lie low, remain calm and try to differentiate himself from the other candidates without going negative. He may yet hold on in New Hampshire if none of the other 3 can emerge from the pack. If he can win he might get some positive media and can start rebuilding support. I don't like his chances because there seems to be a ceiling to his support level, but as long as the race remains 3-way or 4-way he has a good chance of winning primaries and getting good media, and thus might yet convince the Dems to come around to him. He could very well win in Michigan, Wisconsin, Delaware, and Maine, and if so he'll have the early delegate advantage. As Dean-o-phobe argues, losing to Kerry wasn't the worst possible outcome for Dean. He had 40plus support in NH before, so it's not inconcievable that he could get it back by the end of the week if things go his way, though I greatly doubt it.

Clark--He's already slipping behind Kerry in NH. The next 2 weeks are make or break for him--he has to distinguish himself from Kerry and prove he is stronger. He can still place 3rd in NH and go on to the South where he has the advantage in terms of organization. But he cannot let Kerry win NH, unless he can finish a close 2nd. Thus he must mark Kerry, while keeping an eye on his rear (otherwise Edwards will outflank everyone yet again). And finally, Clark has got to take into account that Democratic primary voters may be more pro-war (or at least tolerant of pro-war candidates) than was initially thought--there certainly weren't many Iowa voters using the IWR as a litmus test. If Clark and his team don't learn and react fast Clark's going to be toast, but if he makes the right moves he has the best chances right now IMO.

Kerry--He's got to capitalize on his momentum now. He's got to pick 1-2 Feb. 3 states he can win and invest his personal fortune to build up organization. At the same time he's got to devote all possible energy to a victory in NH, which as David rightfully points out, is totally possible and even likely. He's got to demoralize Clark and his supporters, but not through ruthless attacks because he'll need Clark's people later on. He might think about emphaizing his liberal credentials to win over Dean supporters-he needs them in a 1-1 against Clark or Edwards, if it should come to that.

Edwards--As long as he has the cash to keep doing what he's doing, then he should stay with the exact same strategy. He's got a lot of ground to make up in NH (only 8% in the last ARG) but he's demonstrated what he's capable of. Perhaps he'd be better off concentrating on SC, but if Clark wins in NH then Edwards would be on the defensive. Besides, if he places well in NH he'll have exceeded expectations once again. His "optimistic" strategy could very well work in NH because it's hard to imagine the other 3 candidates not going negative. While concentrating on at least a respectable 4th in NH, Edwards has to build up for a knock-out in SC, TN, and VA. Edwards' is still something of a long-shot though, because he can't have that much cash left. One advantage he has is that he's not yet a front-runner, and thus will be spared the negative media scrutiny for the time being.

I largely agree with that analysis, but I do have a few minor quibbles (as usual). I don't think Dean's people will be swayed by any candidate unless Dean is out of the race. The true Dean supporters have emotionally bonded and invested a lot of time and energy in his campaign. Naturally, there's going to be a number of people who have been convinced by those of his more fervent supporters that may be swayable, but I would guess that the majority of his votes came from his strong supporters. I wonder what the numbers were for him. Trippi claimed to have 40,000 votes locked up, but that could have been spin. Furthermore, I definitely don't think now is the time for Dean to lie low if he wants to win. He needs to go back to the fiery rhetoric that brought him this far. Maybe it won't be what people want, but he needs to dance with the one what brought him. :)