January 22, 2004
Kerry Takes the Lead
It looks like Kerry's momentum and Dean's slipping support have given Kerry the lead in New Hampshire. Daily Kos has a roundup of the tracking polls. Granted, these aren't exact, but they're all showing the same trend; Kerry is shooting up, Dean is slipping, Clark is stagnant, and Edwards is getting a miniscule bump. I'm really interested to see if Dean can reverse things and if Edwards can make another meteoric rise through campaigning.
If you look at the website (here)
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack
then you'll see the Jan. 21 polls show Clark ahead Dean, which means tomorrow's tracking poll will likely have Clark moving past Dean. Clark will be in pretty good shape if he can place 2nd, which means he might not go on the attack till SC. Meanwhile, it would be foolish for Dean to be anything but totally calm and substantive for at least a week, especially at the debate tonight. As for Edwards, a last minute ad blitz a la Iowa might help, but if the debate tonight isn't nasty, then his "I'm an optimistic and nice guy compared to these sniping fools" message won't be as effective.
I guess Edwards has to hope that Dean goes on the offensive or that Kerry and Clark start sniping at each other. Edwards will still have over a week to work in the state though. It only took a couple of weeks in Iowa for him to shoot way up. Apparently he's excellent at connecting with people and at coming across as humble and folksy without being condescending or fake. Either way, a loss won't necessarily kill his candidacy, but a loss to Kerry would be difficult to overcome.