February 18, 2004
Should Johnny go negative?
Well well well, it seems the race goes on. Advisors from the media argue Edwards needs to let loose on Kerry if he has any hope of winning. Merely being the nice guy won't cut it in the soundbyte primary. Edwards' best opening seems to be attacking Kerry's support for "free trade", but until recently Johnny has been reluctant to do so.
I find myself torn on this because although I believe Edwards is the stronger candidate and would like to see him win, I'm not so sure a civil war between Democrats over NAFTA at this juncture is a good thing. We should have been having this discussion months ago. I wonder why it is only coming up as an issue now, even though Gephardt, Kucinich, and to a lesser extent Dean have been pushing it all along.
If Edwards makes trade a big issue and loses in an ugly negative campaign, I'm afraid it might serve to exacerbate the already problematic relationship between Kerry and fair trade activists, leaving us a divided party going into November. But then again, perhaps it would be good for the party to have this discussion. I find it especially ironic that the unions are now getting behind Kerry, just as the debate they've always wanted is emerging and Kerry is turning out to be on the wrong side.
Is defeating Kerry and making Edwards our GE candidate worth the risk of a negative campaign? Or should Johnny just keep smiling?
I don't think Edwards needs to change his strategy at all. With much less press coverage and less money, he's managed to turn it into a two man race where he's the one with the momentum. He just needs to do the same thing he's been doing, but more of it. It bothers me that he's running low on cash, though. I hope his strong showing in Wisconsin will garner some extra donations to him. Maybe Dean will endorse him, too, though that seems unlikely. Either way, Super Tuesday looks favorable towards Edwards considering the demographics of the major states; they all should be places where Edwards can do well. I think an Edwards-Kerry ticket would be a good call, but I don't see it happening. There's no way Kerry would take the consolation prize after being this close to winning. But, much like Bush did in 2000, Edwards will need someone with good foreign policy experience as his VP choice if he gets the nomination. That's his only real weakness, but is more than made up for with his likeability, optimism, and support among independents, right-wingers, and the ignorant undecideds. Go Edwards! :)
I don't know--Edwards isn't exactly the center of media attention right now. Since the states he's contesting (Georgia, New York, Ohio) are huge, Edwards needs to make big waves and keep his name in the papers. Just bashing Bush isn't going to cut it. It's all about garnering media attenition--and the media loves a good fight.
Latest news is that he's attacking Kerry primarily on his free trade position, while Kerry is trying to a two-pronged attack against both Bush and Edwards. We'll see...