February 19, 2004
ElectionProjection
I don’t quite get this guy’s methodology but it seems to be thorough and pretty fair. Using a number of different polls (approval ratings, head-to-head, right track etc. . .) he is projecting the election results for each state (if the election were held today). He admits to being a Bush supporter but claims to make a point of being Democrat bias in his calculations. Anyway, he currently has Bush winning 300 electoral votes to 238. I think this site along with the Swing State Project will be fun to watch as the election nears.
It's a bit hard to believe he puts Wisconsin and Iowa in the GOP column, right after the Dem candidates have spent so much time bashing Bush there. I understand there is a growing right wing presence in Wisconsin. Still, adding together Gore plus Nader it was a close, but solid left state in 2000.
Certainly, both of these states will be contested, but hopefully Ohio and Missouri will also be up for grabs. I think it's also advisable for the Dems to contest Florida.
Well, it looks like he switched Wisconsin to the Dems.