the Greater Nomadic Council

Surprised to see this

Really I am. The Washington Post fronts the results of its latest poll which indicates popular opinion trending toward Bush. I just can’t figure out the American people. The poll reveals that "President Bush holds significant advantages over John F. Kerry in public perceptions of who is better equipped to deal with Iraq and the war on terrorism." And we learn that "Iraq and the war on terrorism have surged in importance, and ranked with the economy and jobs as top voting issues." In the head to head question Bush beats Kerry 48 to 43 with Nader drawing six percent (which seems high to me). All this is a reversal of trends in last month’s poll yet it comes after a month in which "Nearly 100 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq . . . more than in any month since major combat ended last year." Not to mention a full scale media blitz promoting the Richard Clarke book. What makes more inexplicable the simultaneous rise in Bush’s numbers and rise in the importance of Iraq as a voting issue is that people appear to be unhappy with the job Bush is doing there.

Barely half said going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do, while nearly as many -- 46 percent -- said it was a mistake. In the past year, the proportion who view the war as a mistake has tripled. Six in 10 said the United States and its coalition allies are "bogged down" in Iraq.

Just over half believed the administration does not have a clear plan to deal with the growing unrest, unchanged from March. Two in three said the number of casualties in Iraq is unacceptable, the highest reading since the war began 13 months ago.

I haven’t looked at the breakdown (here and here) but just when I was beginning to think the smart money was on a Kerry win I’m reminded that things change quickly and often in ways that are hard to predict.