the Greater Nomadic Council

Kerry Considers Delaying Nomination

Kerry may delay his acceptance of the nomination in order to even the monetary playing field with Bush, whose official nomination will come a month later. I'm not positive this is a good idea. It's a great tactical idea, but I'm not sure about its strategic value. The Bush campaign could very likely attempt to twist this into evidence of Kerry dishonestly manipulating the system to his advantage. Naturally, it would be nothing of the sort, but if Bush could successfully implant that idea into enough minds it could damage Kerry's chances.

However, even if that ploy were not successful, it's not clear that the one month advantage Bush is currently scheduled to enjoy would make a difference. He has already significantly outspent Kerry with no noticeable affect on his approval ratings. If that trend continued through the summer, then Kerry could stay relatively quiet during the month he's waiting for Bush to be officially nominated without worry. Of course, by then more people may be paying attention to the race than currently so ads could have a larger influence than now, making it a risky gamble. Perhaps Kerry could count on the largely Democratic 527s to take up the slack while he waited to dip into the $75 million general election fund, but since he cannot coordinate with those groups there's no guarantee they would promote strategically sound messages or any worthwhile ones at all. Still, the Republican convention is scheduled for August 30th through September 2nd so there would still be almost three months during which the coverage will be much more intense than that leading up to the conventions.

Obviously the best decision is one that will maximize Kerry's chance of winning the election. If we assume that the ability to outspend or at least match spending with one's opponent has a large affect on the outcome, then I tentatively support postponing the nomination. The chance that the Bush campaign will be able to spin this detail into something damaging to Kerry seems small given the complexity of campaign finance rules and the fact that Kerry's nomination would then be almost the same time as Bush's. Since it also seems safe to assume that money spent in the few months before the election will be significantly more valuable than money spent before then, the decision may turn out to be both sound tactics and strategy. Of course, Kerry is only considering the idea now, which means he's probing the public's potential reaction. There's plenty of time left for him to decide. Regardless, it's heartening to see his campaign focusing on the endgame this early.