Here's a bit of evidence for my theory that part of Bush's upswing in the polls results from a false sense that our involvement in Iraq will rapidly be scaled down due to the recent power transfer. I expect a mild weakening in Bush's support once those believing this are disillusioned. Of course, it's possible Allawi will defy expectations and successfully and quickly "take full responsibility for the security of [Iraq]" which would be an enormous boost for Bush.