the Greater Nomadic Council

More on Bush's Strategy

Here's a Salon article breaking down the expected and observed support for Kerry and Bush among various demographics. It suggests that Bush has more or less maxed out his support among the base. The votes he must now reach for are largely moderates and liberals, not an easy group for him to persuade. Here's an excerpt:

Kerry nearly matches expectations among moderates and is running six points better than expected among liberals and five points worse among conservatives. By contrast, Bush reaches expectations among conservatives, with 76 percent of their votes. His shortcomings rest with moderates (six points below expectations) and liberals (11 points below expectations). A typical Republican should expect to do no better than Bush is doing among conservatives.

There's not much information about the methodology of the survey, so it's hard to tell how predictive these results might be, but it seems to fit fairly well with other observations and polls so far.