the Greater Nomadic Council

Defeat

If the evidence remains as it seems (and believe me, I wish it were a dream), the Democratic Party has been routed. A collective delusion overtook liberal America--we honestly thought we were going to win.

Congratulations to the GOP and their supporters. This is perhaps their greatest victory in modern history and they deserve to enjoy it. As much as I disagree with them, their victories over the years have everything to do with superior tenacity, spirit, and faith in their cause. In Plato's Republic, the crucial class between the commoners and the philosophers are the warriors—the people of spirit, honor, and courage who are the raw material for leadership. It is, indeed, fatal to forget just how important this spirit is. Regardless of whether GOP ideas are better, the vitality and ferocity behind their leadership and activism are infectious to the populace. Especially in America today, the people sense that their best interest lies in siding with the strong. If the Dems are to fight back, then they must work on their fighting "spirit" in order to win over the demos and take back America. As it is, too much of Dem activism is caught up in a bottleneck of negation and skepticism. Too many Dems lack the faith and conviction that wins over the mushy middle without the need for rationales.

In the Prospect, Harold Meyerson identifies the cultural war as the root of defeat. As William Saletan and others have noted, the GOP seems to be winning this war on most fronts. I actually hope Meyerson is right, since I’d rather believe people prefer Bush primarily because of his religion rather than because his “toughness”. In any case, we'll have to look over the data. The statistics that stand out seem to be the number of people who voted based on "values" and the number of Hispanics that voted Bush (something like 40%?). I suspect these factors are related.

Relative to 2000, Bush seems to have made gains everywhere except Ohio. He gained some 4 points in California and New York plus 2 in Texas, which help account for his healthy popular margin. But it looks like the biggest gains were in places like Louisiana, Tennessee and of course Florida--all of which were called relatively early for Bush.

Questions will inevitably be asked--would the Dems have done better with a Southerner at the top of the ticket? I think Clark would have reduced the "security gap", but clearly he has liabilities. With their more culturally conservative appeal, Edwards or Gephardt might have done better as well. Could Dean have won people over with his conviction and fighting spirit, or would he have fared even worse? The Dems will have plenty of time for second-guessing and soul searching, because the country is in the GOP's hands now.