April 19, 2005
Armstrong the Great
Lance Armstrong has announced that he is to retire after attempting his record seventh-straight Tour de France this summer. Armstrong says that he likes it when athletes go out on top, so I hope that will give him enough motivation to win this July. He's always had motivation: for his first race, he had lost sponsorships after cancer, and he wanted to prove that he could still get it done. His second Tour was to show it wasn't a fluke. By his third Tour, the doping allegations had come up. In his fourth, it was to show that he could still win when the biggies (Ullrich, et al.) were competing also. The fifth was for the record. The sixth, last year, was the Tour de Sheryl Crow.
Unfortunately for me, I will be studying for the Bar from May to July 28th, so I won't get to watch early-morning OLN, but the rest of you guys should tune in to watch history.
Why not? It's a good reason to get up!
Seriously, I only watch the last hour of the tough mountain stages (maybe 4 tough mountain stages in all)--everything else is more interesting to read than to watch. Anyway, I agree that Lance will be motivated if this is the last hurrah. But I won't be suprised at all to see him pull a Jordan, even if coming back into cycling fitness is extremely tough.
In other cycling news, Tyler Hamilton has lost his appeal. He's suspended for 2 years as of yesterday. His career is most likely over.
Looks like I need to get OLN again. With Hamilton out, who can compete against Lance provided he's in shape? Personally, I would have preferred that he turn to winning other major races. Without that, he'll never be considered the greatest overall cyclist, just the greatest Tour de France cyclist.
Well, it'll be hard for Lance to compete, statistically, with Eddy Merkcx, who also won the Giro a number of times. But the competition is obviously much stiffer now, especially with such effective chemical helpers.
Who can compete with Lance? Ullrich, Mayo, Heras, Kloeden, Vinokourov, and perhaps the young Italian Cunegeo.
One of my students occasionally rides with Tyler. For him, it is extremely tough not to believe Tyler's story, especially given Tyler's (believable) argument that he had little to gain and everything to lose from doping. On the other hand, doping is widespread in the sport. Could Tyler have won Olympic Gold without doping? For myself, Tyler's case is just too scientific for me to have a firm opinion one way or another.
Armstrong will have stiff competition this year. I was greatly impressed with Vinokourov's ride last year, but it doesn't look like he's a real threat to win. Glancing at the early odds: Perhaps the best-known European bookmaker, Armstrong 1-to-1, Ullrich 2-to-1, Hamilton and Mayo 6-to-1, Heras 20-1, Ivan Basso 25-to-1, Haimar Zubeldia 28-to-1, Francisco Mancebo and Carlos Sastre at 40-to-1, and USPS rider Jose Azevedo and Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano at 50-to-1.
Hamilton, btw, was as high as 4-to-1.
(Oops--messed up my paste job. Here's the link.)
I'm afraid those odds are for last year. Nobody's betting on Tyler these days.
Here are the current odds via Mr.Bookmaker.com
ARMSTRONG Lance (USA - DSC) 1.90
ULLRICH Jan (GER - TMO) 4.00
BASSO Ivan (ITA - CSC) 7.00
KLÖDEN Andreas (GER - TMO) 11.00
CUNEGO Damiano (ITA - LAM) 12.00
VINOKOUROV Alexandre (KAZ - TMO) 15.00
HERAS Roberto (ESP - LST) 20.00
VALVERDE B. Alejandro (SPA - IBA) 20.00
BELOKI D. Joseba (SPA - LST) 30.00
MAYO D. Iban (SPA - EUS) 30.00
JAKSCHE Jorg (GER - LST) 50.00
MANCEBO Francisco (SPA - IBA) 50.00
ROGERS Michael (AUS - QST) 50.00
MOREAU Christophe (FRA - C.A) 150.00
VOECKLER Thomas (FRA - BTL)
This seems pretty good to me, except I think they are underestimating Mayo's chances.
Ah, thanks for the correction. It makes more sense that Vinokourov would be higher--he looked great last year. I'm surprised to see Voeckler so low, though; he had a great Tour also. How many stages did he win? How many days in the maillot jaune?
Even if Voeckler isn't a threat to win, he will be exciting to watch.